Lee, for his part, has been bullish on stocks for most of the past year's bear market, and falsely predicted the S&P 500 would notch new highs in 2022, when stocks actually posted a 20% decline.
Six of those sectors have a 20-day moving average that's above the 200-day moving average, another sign a positive trend in the market is taking shape. The percentage of winning stocks in the S&P 500 has increased significantly, with eight out of 11 sectors trading above their 20-day moving average. That suggests the Fed won't tighten financial conditions to fight the tech rally, which means upside for the overall market and for tech stocks in particular. There's a chance the Fed won't tolerate that enthusiasm, Lee said, given that some tech giants, like Tesla, have soared nearly 100% since the start of the year.īut AI could actually be easing inflationary pressures, since increasing productivity at work will suppress wage inflation in the long term, Lee added. Tech stocks have soared in 2023 as firms cash in on the AI hype and vow to implement more artificial intelligence technology into their businesses. But markets have already dialed back their inflation expectations significantly, with an estimate of five-year average inflation five years from now dropping to 2.25% over the last week, according to Federal Reserve data.
The May consumer price index report is slated to be released on June 13. If core inflation clocks in below a 0.4% monthly increase or below a 5.5% yearly increase, that will boost the odds the Fed will pause its rate hikes, which is likely to spur a rally in stocks. May inflation data will be critical into determining the path of stocks, Lee said. He pointed to three key indicators in stocks that could flash in the next month and cement the S&P 500's trajectory for the rest of the year: 1.
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